How the Trump Assasination attempt is shaping up to be a major boon for Bitcoin and mining
Last Saturday, on a relatively clear day in Butler Pennsylvania, presidential candidate Donald Trump took to the stage of a local campaign rally wearing his red MAGA cap. Within minutes, a gunman would be spotted by spectators and several bullets would follow from this gunman moments later. A last-second turn of the head would save Trump’s life, and the world from a potential civil catastrophe, with the bullet hitting only his ear and missing his head by less than an inch.
While he would briefly take to the deck, Trump quickly resurfaced with secret service agents attempting to cover him. However, the former President refused to cower and turned to the crowd with a fist bump, creating an iconic moment which quickly went viral worldwide. While Trump had a slight edge in the polls leading up to the assassination attempt on July 13th, many believe there is a much stronger likelihood of another Trump Presidency in the aftermath.
Bitcoin Mining Set to Benefit from Trump Presidency
While Trump being reelected to Office would hold a wide variety of political implications, Bitcoin mining is one industry which looks likely to benefit directly. This stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration, under which there has been a proposal to introduce a 30% tax on all cryptocurrency mining. This move would likely make a significant share of current US mining operations unviable.
There have been several developments within the past few months suggesting that Trump will take the opposite stance and be highly supportive of the Bitcoin mining industry. In late May, Trump publicly announced that he would “ensure the future of crypto and Bitcoin will be made in the USA”. In the same speech, Trump further stated that he supports “the right to self-custody”. Shortly after this, Trump began accepting Lightning Network payments for campaign donations.
While these developments show openness and support to Bitcoin-related businesses, Trump demonstrated serious intention and commitment to understand and help the industry in a meeting last month. The former President met with several leaders in mining and the broader Bitcoin industry.
Among the meeting attendees were Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey and former Head of Mining for Galaxy Digital Amanda Fabiano. Representatives of major mining companies CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital were also in attendance. Bailey shared that Trump committed to helping the Bitcoin mining industry thrive. In the aftermath, Trump shared that “We want all remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA” and tied this to energy dominance for the country.
Trump Picks Perfect Pro-Crypto Running Partner
Trump’s commitment to helping the Bitcoin mining industry further strengthened during the week when Ohio Senator JD Vance was announced as his Vice President running mate. Former venture capitalist Vance has an extremely positive track record with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency on both a personal and professional level. In terms of providing support for cryptocurrency-related businesses, Vance is the strongest Vice President candidate Trump could have picked.
Vance’s professional ties to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency date back to his venture capital days in 2020 when his work at Peter Thiel’s Mithril Capital led to a $142 million Series C investment in Paxos. In his work at Capitol Hill, Vance has been working to introduce new cryptocurrency regulations which would overhaul how the SEC and CFTC police the industry. The proposed regulations have been noted to be more industry-friendly than the current legislation.
On a personal level, Vance has also not shied away from the cryptocurrency industry. While running for Senate in 2021, Vance reported holding between $100,001 and $250,000 of BTC value in his Coinbase account. This willingness to not only advocate for industry-friendly regulation as a professional but also to hold Bitcoin personally suggests that Vance will strongly support and likely encourage any proposals by Trump to aid the Bitcoin mining industry.
Implications of a Trump-Vance Term for Bitcoin Mining
Odds derived from Polymarket currently put Trump at a 66% chance of winning the upcoming election. With the markets heavily favoring a Trump victory, it is worth considering what specific changes could be made that may impact miners and the Bitcoin industry generally.
Mining is undoubtedly an energy-intensive industry and its environmental impact has been a longstanding topic of debate. In the documentation supporting the Biden administration’s proposal to introduce a 30% excise tax on miners, it was argued that the tax would be put in place to balance out the impact miners have on pollution, energy prices, and greenhouse gasses.
It is likely that a Trump administration would not only view this matter differently but would also likely put in place subsidies to further reduce the energy costs miners are facing, regardless of the energy source. Vance has already shown a willingness to help industries tied to oil and gas. Last year, Vance introduced a bill to repeal tax credits for electric vehicles and instead offer tax credits to US-manufactured vehicles that are powered by oil and gas. This combined with Trump’s commitment to helping USA miners thrive makes energy subsidies a strong likelihood under a Trump-Vance term.
Besides energy subsidies, announcing bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset would be the most direct form that a Trump government could help Bitcoin miners. However, we may also observe developments in the broader industry. Trump's statements regarding self-hosted wallets and central bank digital currencies may result in us seeing further regulatory clarity surrounding these matters.
Regarding a central bank digital currency (CBDC), Trump has described it as “very dangerous” and has publicly stated that he will never allow the creation of one. As it stands, whether the Federal Reserve holds the authority to launch a CBDC is somewhat of a legal gray area. During a Trump term, we would likely see a move to explicitly state that the Federal Reserve does not have this authority.
Trump has also publicly stated that he will support the right to self-custody. A previous legislative proposal in 2020 threatened that right by seeking to restrict businesses like exchanges from servicing self-hosted wallets without conducting KYC. This would have proven to be a legislative nightmare for the compliance departments of US exchanges but the proposal failed to proceed. Under a Trump term, we would likely get further legal clarity over self-hosted wallets and we may see Congress move to prevent agencies from restricting the use of these wallets.
Overall, a Trump presidency is shaping up to be highly favorable to both the Bitcoin mining industry and the broader cryptocurrency market. We are likely to see not only measures to support miners such as subsidies but also favorable clarity around legal gray areas which are currently preventing the industry from fully thriving. Such a favorable outlook would also likely play into market conditions which have been rebounding strongly since the assassination attempt.
